Advancing statistical models to reveal the effect of dissolved oxygen on the spatial distribution of marine taxa using thresholds and a physiologically based index

The rapid pace of ocean change has prompted a need to forecast likely future species distributions. Species distribution models are often categorized as either correlative (statistical) or mechanistic, and each limitations both for advancing understanding prediction. Here we sought benefit from mechanistic how why low dissolved oxygen affects species' distributions by applying physiologically informed statistical the spatial sablefish Anoplopoma fimbria, deep-dwelling commercially important groundfish. We fit trawl-survey data on catch rate, local temperature oxygen, estimated parameters metabolic index, which provided way express temperature-dependence tolerance. generalized linear mixed effects with Gaussian random fields capture latent spatially fixed variables, included breakpoint functions pO2 index. best fitting all pO2, threshold value 0.05 atm is close levels in laboratory studies where metabolism begins decline. Models based index were not well supported those that because decrease slight increase at deep (> 800 m) depths. These findings illustrate can be improved incorporating knowledge physiological mechanisms operate. Furthermore, they even high tolerance may undergo shifts face growing depletion coastal ecosystems.